Most traditional horse-racing bets involve selecting a horse to win or finish within the advertised places.
A forecast asks you to go one step further.
Instead of selecting only the winner, you must predict which horses will finish first and second in the same race.
Depending on the type of forecast, you may also need to predict the exact finishing order.
At Kevin Myles, we have been involved in independent on-course bookmaking since 1989. In this guide, we explain how forecast bets work, the difference between straight, reverse and combination forecasts, how much they cost and how successful forecasts are settled.
What Is a Forecast Bet?
A forecast is a horse-racing bet in which you select the horses you believe will finish first and second.
There are three common types:
Straight forecast
Reverse forecast
Combination forecast
The main difference is whether your horses must finish in an exact order and how many possible finishing combinations your bet covers.
Because predicting the first two finishers is more difficult than simply selecting the winner, forecast returns can be larger. However, the additional difficulty also means there are more ways for the bet to lose.
What Is a Straight Forecast?
A straight forecast requires you to select the horses that will finish first and second in the correct order.
For example:
Horse A to finish first
Horse B to finish second
Your forecast wins only if the race finishes:
Horse A
Horse B
The bet loses if:
Horse B wins and Horse A finishes second.
Either horse finishes outside the first two.
A different horse finishes first or second.
Your selections finish first and third.
Your selections finish second and third.
A straight forecast is one bet because it covers one precise finishing order.
Straight Forecast Example
Imagine a race containing eight horses.
You believe:
Red Star will win.
Blue Moon will finish second.
You place a straight forecast:
Red Star first, Blue Moon second
If the result is:
Red Star
Blue Moon
your forecast is successful.
If Blue Moon wins and Red Star finishes second, the forecast loses because the finishing order is reversed.
What Is a Reverse Forecast?
A reverse forecast requires two selected horses to finish first and second in either order.
Using the same horses, a reverse forecast covers:
Red Star first, Blue Moon second.
Blue Moon first, Red Star second.
It is effectively two straight forecasts.
Your bet wins if your two selections occupy the first two positions, regardless of which one wins.
A reverse forecast offers more coverage than a straight forecast, but it also costs twice the unit stake because two separate finishing combinations are included.
Reverse Forecast Example
You select:
Red Star
Blue Moon
You place a £5 reverse forecast.
The bet contains:
£5 on Red Star first and Blue Moon second.
£5 on Blue Moon first and Red Star second.
Your total stake is therefore:
£10
If either horse wins and the other finishes second, one part of the reverse forecast is successful.
The other part loses.
This is similar to an each-way bet in one important respect: the amount entered is a unit stake, and the total cost is greater because the bet contains more than one component.
Straight Forecast vs Reverse Forecast
The key difference is the finishing order.
Bet typeRequired resultNumber of betsStraight forecastTwo horses first and second in the exact order1Reverse forecastTwo horses first and second in either order2
A straight forecast has a lower total stake but requires greater accuracy.
A reverse forecast provides two possible winning orders but costs twice the unit stake.
What Is a Combination Forecast?
A combination forecast allows you to select three or more horses and cover every possible first-and-second combination involving those selections.
For example, suppose you select:
Horse A
Horse B
Horse C
Your combination forecast covers:
A first, B second
A first, C second
B first, A second
B first, C second
C first, A second
C first, B second
That produces six separate straight forecasts.
Your bet is successful if any two of your three selected horses finish first and second in either order.
How Much Does a Combination Forecast Cost?
The more horses you include, the more combinations—and therefore the greater the total stake.
The number of bets in a combination forecast is calculated as:
Number of selections × one fewer than the number of selections
SelectionsCalculationNumber of bets33 × 2644 × 31255 × 42066 × 530
If your unit stake is £1:
Three-horse combination forecast costs £6.
Four-horse combination forecast costs £12.
Five-horse combination forecast costs £20.
Six-horse combination forecast costs £30.
Always check the total stake before confirming the bet.
Adding another horse can increase the cost considerably because it creates multiple additional combinations.
Combination Forecast Example
Imagine you select four horses:
Horse A
Horse B
Horse C
Horse D
A four-horse combination forecast contains 12 separate bets.
At a £1 unit stake, the total stake is:
12 bets × £1 = £12
If Horse C wins and Horse A finishes second, one combination is successful.
It does not matter that Horses B and D finish outside the first two because the successful C–A combination was included.
However, only the successful combination produces a return. The other 11 component bets lose.
What Is a Banker Forecast?
A banker forecast is built around one main selection.
You might select one horse to win and several different horses to finish second.
For example:
Banker to win: Horse A
Possible second-placed selections:
Horse B
Horse C
Horse D
The bet contains:
A first, B second.
A first, C second.
A first, D second.
In this example, Horse A must win.
If Horse B, C or D wins instead, the forecast loses—even if Horse A finishes second—unless the reverse orders were also included separately.
Availability and terminology can vary, so always check which forecast options are being offered and exactly which finishing combinations are included.
What Is a Tricast Bet?
A tricast takes the same principle further.
Instead of predicting the first two finishers, you must predict the horses finishing:
First
Second
Third
A straight tricast requires the first three horses in the exact order.
For example:
Horse A first.
Horse B second.
Horse C third.
All three must finish in those positions for the bet to win.
Predicting the first three finishers in the correct order is considerably more difficult than selecting only the winner or the first two.
What Is a Combination Tricast?
A combination tricast covers multiple possible finishing orders involving three or more selections.
Selecting three horses in a combination tricast covers all six ways those horses can fill the first three positions:
A–B–C
A–C–B
B–A–C
B–C–A
C–A–B
C–B–A
A four-horse combination tricast contains 24 bets.
A five-horse combination tricast contains 60 bets.
The total stake can therefore increase quickly.
Before placing a combination forecast or tricast, check both the unit stake and the total amount being placed.
Forecast vs Tricast
Bet typeWhat you must predictStraight forecastFirst and second in the exact orderReverse forecastTwo horses to finish first and second in either orderCombination forecastAny two of three or more selections to finish first and secondStraight tricastFirst, second and third in the exact orderCombination tricastThree selected horses to fill the first three places in any covered order
Tricasts are harder to win because they require three correct selections rather than two.
They can also cost considerably more when multiple combinations are included.
How Are Forecast Returns Calculated?
Forecasts are not always settled in the same way as an ordinary win bet.
With a normal fixed-price win bet, the potential return can be calculated from the odds displayed when the bet is placed.
Traditional forecasts may instead be settled using an official forecast dividend calculated after the result is known.
The declared dividend can take account of factors such as:
The Starting Price of the winning horse.
The Starting Price of the second-placed horse.
The number of runners.
The relationship between the prices of the first two horses.
Some forecast markets may be offered at fixed odds or settled using a pool dividend instead.
The applicable settlement method should be shown when the bet is placed or explained in the bookmaker’s betting rules.
Forecast Return Example
Suppose the declared forecast dividend is:
£18.50 to a £1 stake
If your successful forecast unit stake was £2, the return would be:
£18.50 × 2 = £37
This example assumes no deductions, dead-heats or other settlement adjustments apply.
You may not know the precise return from a traditional dividend-based forecast before the race because the dividend is calculated after the result.
Is a Forecast the Same as an Exacta?
The terms describe very similar bets.
A bookmaker’s straight forecast requires you to predict the first two finishers in their exact order.
A Tote Exacta also involves selecting the first and second horses in the correct order, but it is settled from a betting pool.
The key difference is how the return is calculated.
A traditional bookmaker forecast may use an industry forecast dividend or an offered fixed price. An Exacta dividend is determined by the money in the relevant pool and the number of successful bets.
Always check which product you are selecting rather than assuming every first-and-second bet is settled identically.
Forecast Bet vs Each-Way Bet
Forecasts and each-way bets are fundamentally different.
An each-way bet involves:
One bet on a horse to win.
One bet on the same horse to place.
A forecast involves selecting two different horses to finish first and second.
Each-way betForecast betUsually involves one horseInvolves at least two horsesContains a win and place betPredicts the first two finishersPlace terms are advertisedSettlement may use a forecast dividendHorse can place without winningSelected horses must fill the first two positions
Read What Does Each-Way Mean in Horse Racing? for a complete explanation of each-way bets and place terms.
Forecast Bet vs Win Bet
A win bet requires one selection to win.
A forecast requires the correct first and second horses.
For example:
You believe Horse A will win but are unsure what will finish second: a win bet may match that opinion more closely.
You believe Horse A will beat Horse B specifically: a straight forecast expresses that prediction.
You believe Horses A and B will dominate but are unsure which will win: a reverse forecast covers both orders.
A forecast is not automatically better value simply because its potential return may be larger.
It is also more difficult to win.
What Happens if There Is a Non-Runner?
A horse can be withdrawn after a forecast has been placed.
How the bet is treated will depend on:
Which selection became a non-runner.
The type of forecast.
Whether the market was reformed.
The settlement method.
The bookmaker’s applicable rules.
The affected forecast may be void, reduced or settled under specific non-runner provisions.
Always check the betting rules when one of your selections does not participate.
What Happens in a Dead-Heat?
A dead-heat occurs when two or more horses cannot be separated for a finishing position.
For example, two horses could dead-heat for first while another finishes third.
This creates more than one possible finishing order for settlement purposes.
Forecast returns can be divided or adjusted according to the dead-heat rules and the number of successful combinations.
Because the calculation can become complicated, check the final settlement and the bookmaker’s published rules.
Can You Place a Forecast in Every Race?
No.
Forecast betting will only be available on qualifying races and markets.
Availability can depend on factors including:
The number of declared runners.
The number of horses that actually start.
The type of race.
Whether an official forecast dividend will be returned.
The bookmaker’s market offering.
Do not assume that a forecast or tricast is available simply because a race has several runners.
Check the available markets before placing the bet.
What Should You Consider Before Placing a Forecast?
A forecast requires you to assess more than which horse is most likely to win.
You also need to consider which horse is most likely to finish second.
Relevant information can include:
Recent form.
Official ratings.
Handicap weights.
Course and distance records.
Ground conditions.
Draw.
Likely pace.
Jockey and trainer form.
Field size.
Previous performances against the opposition.
The cost of the different forecast combinations.
Our guides to reading a horse-racing racecard, handicap races and ground conditions explain these factors in more detail.
No selection method guarantees a successful forecast.
Common Forecast Betting Mistakes
Forgetting the order
A straight forecast requires the correct order.
Selecting the right two horses is not enough if they finish the other way around.
Confusing the unit stake with the total stake
A reverse forecast contains two bets.
Combination forecasts can contain six, 12, 20 or more separate bets.
Adding too many selections
Including more horses creates additional coverage, but the cost can increase rapidly.
Assuming the return is known
A traditional forecast dividend may not be calculated until after the race.
Ignoring non-runner rules
A withdrawal can change how the bet is settled.
Treating a forecast as a safer bet
A forecast requires two correct finishing positions and is generally harder to win than a straightforward win bet.
Forecast Betting Explained: The Simple Version
If you remember nothing else from this guide, remember:
A forecast bet asks you to predict which horses will finish first and second.
A straight forecast requires the exact order.
A reverse forecast covers two horses finishing first and second in either order and contains two bets.
A combination forecast uses three or more selections and covers every included first-and-second combination.
The more combinations you cover, the greater the total stake.
Always check:
The order of your selections.
The unit stake.
The total stake.
How the forecast will be settled.
The applicable non-runner and dead-heat rules.
Horse-Racing Betting Explained by Kevin Myles
Kevin Myles has been involved in independent on-course bookmaking since 1989, with pitches at more than 30 racecourses across Great Britain.
Our A Bookmaker Explains series provides straightforward guides to horse-racing odds, terminology and betting rules.
Continue reading:
How Do Horse-Racing Odds Work?
How to Read a Horse-Racing Racecard
What Does Each-Way Mean in Horse Racing?
What Is a Handicap Horse Race?
What Does the Going Mean in Horse Racing?
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